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>England vs Croatia Prediction & Betting Tips – 12/11/2026
England welcome Croatia to what promises to be a charged Nations League League A, Group 3 encounter on 12 November 2026, with kickoff set for 19:45 GMT. The rivalry between these two sides has simmered since that dramatic 2018 World Cup semi-final, and the most recent meeting produced a scarcely believable scoreline. England, pushing to keep pace with group leaders Spain, need another convincing display. Croatia, under the returning Slaven Bilić, arrive desperate to restore credibility after a historic humiliation in the reverse fixture.
Match Analysis
England enter this Nations League clash as commanding favourites at 1.25, and the underlying numbers fully justify that price. With a campaign average of 3.5 goals scored per game and an xG of 2.9, Southgate's side are structurally dominant.
- 7-0 reverse fixture win remains Croatia's heaviest defeat in history, demonstrating total superiority.
- 11 goals in 2026 for Ballon d'Or winner Harry Kane, who is available and in peak form.
- Jude Bellingham contributed 1G and 3A in the reverse fixture, maintaining a world-class creative spine.
- Anthony Gordon has direct goal involvement in 5 consecutive appearances, covering Saka's absence effectively.
Croatia arrive at 11.00 facing a near-impossible task. Bilić's side average just 1.0 goal per Nations League game this campaign, and the absence of key defenders Pongračić and Erlić leaves an already fragile backline dangerously exposed.
- Croatia's xG of 1.2 per game exposes a chronic lack of attacking threat against elite defences.
- Defensive absentees Pongračić and Erlić leave 2 first-choice centre-backs missing against Kane and company.
- Croatia manage just 3.3 shots on target per game, offering minimal threat to England's goalkeeper.
Key point: With both Over and Under 2.5 lines unavailable, the double chance covering an England win or draw is effectively priced through 1.25, offering a low-risk entry point given the 82% confidence rating.
Form & Statistics: England vs Croatia
England
Recent form
Season statistics (5)
Croatia
Recent form
Season statistics (5)
Lineups: England vs Croatia
England
Starters
- 1 Jordan Pickford
- 2 Trent Alexander-Arnold
- 3 Ezri Konsa
- 4 Marc Guehi
- 5 Lewis Hall
- 6 Elliot Anderson
- 7 James Garner
- 8 Jude Bellingham
- 9 Eberechi Eze
- 10 Harry Kane
- 11 Anthony Gordon
Bench
- James Trafford
- Myles Lewis-Skelly
- Morgan Rogers
- Morgan Gibbs-White
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin
- Rio Ngumoha
- Jason Steele
Absent
- Jarrad Branthwaite (injury)
- Bukayo Saka (injury)
- Trevoh Chalobah (injury)
- Alex Scott (injury)
Croatia
Starters
- 1 Dominik Livaković
- 2 Josip Stanišić
- 3 Josip Šutalo
- 4 Luka Vušković
- 5 Joško Gvardiol
- 6 Luka Modrić
- 7 Mateo Kovačić
- 8 Martin Baturina
- 9 Luka Sučić
- 10 Petar Musa
- 11 Ivan Perišić
Bench
- Andrej Kramarić
- Igor Matanović
- Kristijan Jakić
- Nikola Vlašić
- Mario Pašalić
- Josip Mišić
- Ivor Pandur
Absent
- Marin Pongračić (injury)
- Martin Erlić (injury)
Medium confidence
A mirror image of formations sets the stage at Wembley, with both sides lining up in a 4-2-3-1. Jude Bellingham operates in the number ten role for England, with Elliot Anderson and James Garner providing the defensive midfield platform beneath him.
Croatia retain genuine quality in the middle of the park, where Luka Modrić and Mateo Kovačić offer composure and experience that belies the generational shift happening around them. The tactical battle between the two double pivots could well determine which side controls the tempo of this Nations League fixture.
Our Verdict
England's home win at 1.25 is our selection and the strongest pick on this card. The Three Lions have won four of their last five matches, averaging 3.5 goals per Nations League fixture this campaign, and that staggering 7-0 demolition of Croatia in the reverse meeting speaks volumes. Harry Kane's Ballon d'Or form, Anthony Gordon's five-match goal involvement streak, and Jude Bellingham's creative brilliance make this side formidable. Croatia's expected goals output of just 1.0 per match underlines the gulf in quality. Back England to win with confidence.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the best bet for England vs Croatia?
England to win is the standout selection here. The home side average 3.5 goals per Nations League fixture this campaign against Croatia's 1.0, and their xG of 2.9 underlines that attacking dominance is entirely genuine. With Croatia's defensive absentees and England operating at peak form, the 1.25 reflects a side that are overwhelming favourites for very good reason.
What time does England vs Croatia kick off?
England vs Croatia kicks off at 19:45 GMT on Thursday, 12 November 2026. The match is a UEFA Nations League League A fixture and will be played at a venue in England. Check your local listings to confirm the precise stadium details, but the evening kickoff time remains fixed.
Where can I watch England vs Croatia on TV?
Broadcast arrangements for UEFA Nations League fixtures in the United Kingdom are typically shared between Channel 4 and Sky Sports, depending on the fixture schedule. We strongly recommend checking both broadcasters' listings closer to kickoff on 12 November 2026 to confirm which channel holds the rights for this particular match.
What is England's recent record against Croatia?
The most striking entry in the recent head-to-head record is England's 7-0 triumph over Croatia on 3 October 2026, the heaviest defeat in Croatian football history. That result, built on a Bellingham masterclass and 11-goal Kane in imperious form, represents England's largest ever UEFA Nations League victory and underlines their current superiority over this opponent.