Expected Goals (xG), a metric to help define the good finishers from the bad. Created to determine the quality of chances and probability of scoring, it has become increasingly popular when crunching the numbers.
The better finishers will outperform their xG figure, scoring harder opportunities and making the most of the clear-cut chances that come their way. Which players in Europe have led from the front this season?
Using date from Understat, we’ve looked at the six stars with the biggest xG overperformance in 2023/24 so far.
Jude Bellingham – Real Madrid (+4.50)
Jude Bellingham has taken Spanish football by storm this season with the midfielder having made a stunning impact since signing for Real Madrid in the summer.
Real Madrid beat off competition from the Premier League to land the 20-year-old from Borussia Dortmund and Bellingham has thrived in the famous all-white colours. He has scored 18 goals in 26 appearances in all competitions, including a joint-leading 14 goals in La Liga.
Granted licence to roam forward at will, Bellingham has become the driving force of Carlo Ancelotti’s side. His league return is already comfortably his best-ever goalscoring season, with Bellingham having shown the quality of his finishing by exceeded his xG figures.
The ease at which Bellingham has adapted to the high pressure surroundings of Spain’s capital has been truly astonishing.
A special talent.
Artem Dovbyk – Girona (+4.50)
Artem Dovbyk is the joint-leader in the race to finish as La Liga’s leading scorer having hit 14 goals for Girona this season.
Dovbyk has been a breakout star in a team who have been Europe’s surprise package this season, hitting the ground running since arriving from Dnipro in the summer. Girona spent a club-record €7.5m to sign Dovbryk after 53 goals in 83 games for the Ukrainian side.
That fee has proven to be brilliant business, with the 26-year-old one of the stars of the La Liga season.
La Liga’s top scorers:
▪️ Jude Bellingham (Real)
▪️ Artem Dovbyk (Girona)Top of the charts in their first season ???? pic.twitter.com/jRCwtFVVOl
— B/R Football (@brfootball) January 22, 2024
Son Heung-min – Tottenham (+4.53)
Son Heung-min might just be the best finisher in the Premier League.
The 31-year-old regularly outperforms his xG figures and has done so once again for Spurs this season, scoring 12 league goals from an xG of 7.47.
Son’s sharp-shooting has helped Spurs combat the loss of Harry Kane last summer, with the South Korean shining in Ange Postecoglou’s exciting side.
Son has outperformed his xG in every Premier League season since 2015/16.
Albert Gudmundsson – Genoa (+4.77)
Albert Gudmundsson has been central to Genoa’s impressive return to Serie A this season, scoring nine goals in 19 league appearances.
The Iceland international’s return has come from an xG figure of 4.23, with Gudmundsson a standout star in Italy’s top division this season.
AC Milan, Juventus, Inter and West Ham have all been linked with a move to sign the 26-year-old this month, who ranks second in Serie A for chances created, fourth for expected assists and sixth for successful take-ons in 2023/24.
Lautaro Martinez – Inter Milan (+4.79)
Lautaro Martinez’s sensational start to the season has fired Inter Milan to the top of the Serie A table.
Martinez has scored 18 goals in 18 league games for the league leaders, leaving him seven goals clear of nearest challenger Dusan Vlahovic in the race for the The Capocannoniere award as Serie A’s leading scorer.
Martinez is aiming to become the fourth Inter player to win The Capocannoniere award this century, after Christian Vieri, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Mauro Icardi.
Lautaro Martínez has now scored as many goals for Inter as Christian Vieri (123), only eight players in the club’s history have more.
El Toro is becoming a living legend. ???? pic.twitter.com/SUaWUoRWAa
— Squawka (@Squawka) January 22, 2024
The World Cup winner has formed an exciting partnership with summer arrival Marcus Thuram, who is the joint-leading assist provider in the division.
Harry Kane – Bayern Munich (+4.91)
Harry Kane’s record-breaking start at Bayern Munich has seen the forward produce the biggest overperformance in Europe’s top five leagues.
No player in those divisions has outscored Kane (22) this season, with the England captain’s return having come from an xG of 17.19.
When you can score goals like this, is that any real surprise?
Wir könnten uns dieses Tor den ganzen Tag anschauen! ????
@HKane #MiaSanMia pic.twitter.com/EO8CYHlxsz
— FC Bayern München (@FCBayern) October 31, 2023
Kane has averaged Bundesliga goal every 68 minutes during the 2023/24 campaign, as he looks to add the division’s leading scorer accolade to his three Premier League Golden Boots.
Bayern will need the 30-year-old to continue his fine form across the second half of the campaign, as the defending champions look to hunt down unbeaten leaders Bayer Leverkusen in the title race.
Read – The players with the worst xG underperformance in Europe’s top five leagues
See more – Five world-class players who arrived in the Premier League too late
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