Portsmouth
Derby County
>Portsmouth vs Derby County Prediction & Betting Tips – 01/09/2026
Fratton Park hosts a Championship fixture on Tuesday evening that carries early-season urgency for both sides. Portsmouth, sitting sixteenth after a patchy opening to the campaign, need a convincing home display to settle nerves along the south coast. Derby County arrive in even greater need, still without a league victory this term and languishing in twenty-first place. Neither side can afford another setback at this stage; confidence is fragile, and the September schedule will not wait for stragglers. Something has to give under the Fratton Park floodlights.
Match Analysis
Derby County arrive at Fratton Park as the value pick at 3.20, backed by an extraordinary H2H record: unbeaten in their last eight meetings against Portsmouth, including a 4-0 demolition and a 1-0 win at this very ground.
- Unbeaten in 8 consecutive H2H meetings against Portsmouth, with 6 draws and 2 Derby wins.
- 4-0 win at their own ground in December 2024 and a 1-0 win at Fratton Park in March 2026 confirm Derby's dominance on any turf.
- Bobby Clark and Corey Blackett-Taylor retain creative threat in Derby's probable XI despite a heavy injury list.
- 100% Over 2.5 rate in last 3 league matches for both sides; Derby's H2H resilience positions them well in a high-scoring contest.
Portsmouth, priced at 2.25, face a daunting task. John Mousinho's side has conceded 11 goals in just four competitive matches this season, and key absences including Bursik, Ogilvie, Anderson, and Murphy further strip the home squad of crucial depth.
- 11 goals conceded in 4 competitive matches, with zero clean sheets in their last 5 games.
- Four confirmed absentees, including goalkeeper Bursik and defender Ogilvie, critically weaken Portsmouth's defensive structure.
- Winless in their last 12 league meetings against Derby, making a home victory a historically remote outcome.
Key point: With both sides posting 100% Over 2.5 rates in recent league outings and Portsmouth's backline in crisis, the over 2.5 goals market at 2.02 offers a compelling complementary angle.
Form & Statistics: Portsmouth vs Derby County
Portsmouth
Recent form
Season statistics (4)
Derby County
Recent form
Season statistics (4)
Portsmouth vs Derby County: Head-to-Head
Average statistics (recent meetings)
Lineups: Portsmouth vs Derby County
Portsmouth
Starters
- 1 Nicolas Schmid
- 2 Terry Devlin
- 3 Benjamin Arthur
- 4 Conor Shaughnessy
- 5 Zak Swanson
- 6 Marlon Pack
- 7 Ebou Adams
- 8 Abu Kamara
- 9 Adrian Segecic
- 10 Ryan Kavuma McQueen
- 11 Marko Milovanovic
Absent
- Joe Morrell (injury)
- Márk Kosznovszky (injury)
- Jacob Farrell (injury)
- Josef Bursik (injury)
- Connor Ogilvie (injury)
- Keshi Anderson (injury)
- Franco Umeh (injury)
- Thomas Waddingham (injury)
- Josh Murphy (groin setback/ankle injury)
- Harvey Blair (injury)
Derby County
Starters
- 1 Jacob Widell Zetterström
- 2 Joe Ward
- 3 Sondre Langås
- 4 Dion Sanderson
- 5 Charlie Taylor
- 6 Alex Mowatt
- 7 Samuel Szmodics
- 8 Bobby Clark
- 9 Corey Blackett-Taylor
- 10 Rhian Brewster
Absent
- Carlton Morris (injury)
- Derry Murkin (injury)
- Patrick Agyemang (injury)
- Matt Clarke (injury)
- Sammie Szmodics (injury)
- Lewis Travis (knock, undergoing assessment)
Medium confidence
A mirror image of formations sets the stage at Fratton Park, with both sides lining up in a 4-2-3-1. The tactical battle in the double pivot will be central, as Marlon Pack and Ebou Adams look to control the tempo for Portsmouth against Derby's industrious midfield pairing of Alex Mowatt and Samuel Szmodics.
For the visitors, Rhian Brewster carries the attacking threat up front, supported by a creative trio behind him. Portsmouth will look to use the width of Abu Kamara and Ryan Kavuma McQueen to stretch Derby's defensive shape and exploit any space in behind on the flanks.
Our Verdict
The X2 double chance is our pick for this fixture, with Derby's away odds at 3.20 offering genuine value. The Rams are unbeaten in eight consecutive meetings against Portsmouth, a run stretching across six draws and two victories, including a comprehensive 4-0 win. That head-to-head dominance is difficult to ignore, even given Derby's slow start. Portsmouth's defensive frailties, having shipped 11 goals in four matches, further support the case. The draw at 3.40 looks a realistic outcome given the frequency of stalemates between these two sides. Odds correct at time of publication.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the best bet for Portsmouth vs Derby County?
The draw or away win double chance is the standout selection here, with Derby's unbeaten run of eight matches against Portsmouth lending considerable weight to the case. With Pompey's backline having conceded 11 goals in four competitive fixtures and several key absentees weakening the home side further, the away side at 3.20 represents genuine value.
What time does Portsmouth vs Derby County kick off?
This Championship fixture kicks off at 18:45 UTC on Tuesday, 1st September 2026. The match takes place at Fratton Park, Portsmouth's compact and atmospheric ground on the south coast of England, where Derby County will be looking to extend their unbeaten head-to-head record against the home side.
Where can I watch Portsmouth vs Derby County on TV?
Broadcast arrangements for this fixture have not been confirmed in our data. We would advise checking with your domestic television provider or the relevant streaming platforms for the most up-to-date coverage information, as Championship matches are distributed across several broadcasters depending on your territory and the specific scheduling of the round.
What is Portsmouth's recent record against Derby County?
Portsmouth's recent record against Derby County makes for sobering reading for the home faithful. Derby are unbeaten in their last eight meetings against Pompey, a run comprising six draws and two wins for the Rams. That sequence includes a commanding 4-0 victory at Derby's own ground in December 2024 and a 1-0 win at Fratton Park in March 2026.