Greece
Germany
>Greece vs Germany Prediction & Betting Tips – 04/10/2026
Greece welcome Germany to Athens on 4 October 2026 in a Nations League League A Group 2 fixture that carries genuine weight at both ends of the table. Ivan Jovanovic's side sit top of the group with seven points from three matches, their unbeaten run including a memorable 1-0 victory over this very opponent in the reverse fixture. Jurgen Klopp's Germany, buoyed by a first win under his stewardship against Serbia, arrive seeking revenge and needing points to salvage their campaign. The stakes could hardly be higher for either side.
Match Analysis
Greece enter this home fixture as surprise group leaders and genuine favorites at 3.75, backed by 7 points from 3 Nations League matches and a proven 1-0 win over Germany in the reverse fixture.
- 7 points from 3 matches puts Greece top of Group A2, ahead of all rivals.
- 1-0 win over Germany in the reverse fixture gives Greece a clear tactical blueprint.
- Disciplined defensive block held a 2-0 lead against the Netherlands before conceding late.
- Pavlidis leads the line as a reliable focal point despite the absence of Tzolis and Konstantelias.
Germany arrive as underdogs at 1.90, stripped of Havertz and Musiala through injury, with Kimmich and Schlotterbeck also absent, leaving Klopp relying on an inexperienced, heavily rotated squad with limited cohesion.
- Only 3 goals from 74 shots across their last 5 matches reveals a severe clinical problem.
- Havertz and Musiala both absent, removing Germany's two most dangerous attacking creators.
- Kimmich and Schlotterbeck also missing, further destabilizing defensive and midfield structure.
Key point: With Germany's conversion rate historically poor and Greece defensively compact, the draw double chance covering home or draw aligns well with the 3.75 offering meaningful value as a standalone angle.
Form & Statistics: Greece vs Germany
Greece
Recent form
Season statistics (2)
Germany
Recent form
Season statistics (5)
Lineups: Greece vs Germany
Greece
Starters
- 1 Konstantinos Tzolakis
- 2 Manolis Saliakas
- 3 Konstantinos Mavropanos
- 4 Panagiotis Retsos
- 5 Konstantinos Tsimikas
- 6 Dimitrios Kourbelis
- 7 Athanasios Androutsos
- 8 Konstantinos Karetsas
- 9 Georgios Masouras
- 10 Vangelis Pavlidis
- 11 Christos Zafeiris
Bench
- Fotis Ioannidis
Absent
- Christos Tzolis (Muscular/thigh injury (sustained against Netherlands), expected to miss 2-3 weeks.)
- Giannis Konstantelias (ACL tear.)
Germany
Starters
- 1 Jonas Urbig
- 2 Ansgar Knauff
- 3 Waldemar Anton
- 4 Malick Thiaw
- 5 Maximilian Mittelstädt
- 6 Tom Bischof
- 7 Aleksandar Pavlović
- 8 Florian Wirtz
- 9 Derry Scherhant
- 10 Nick Woltemade
- 11 Serge Gnabry
Bench
- Said El Mala
- Mika Baur
- Vitaly Janelt
- Jonathan Burkardt
Absent
- Kai Havertz (Knee injury.)
- Jamal Musiala (Thigh injury.)
- Nico Schlotterbeck (Withdrew from squad.)
- Joshua Kimmich (Dropped from squad.)
- Kevin Schade (Dropped from squad.)
- Karim Adeyemi (Dropped from squad.)
- Felix Nmecha (Dropped from squad.)
- Jonathan Tah (Dropped from squad.)
- Nathaniel Brown (Dropped from squad.)
Medium confidence
A 4-2-3-1 against a 4-3-3 shapes up as the tactical contest here, with Greece looking to sit compact and transition through Vangelis Pavlidis as the focal point. Germany's midfield trio will be central to controlling tempo, with Florian Wirtz the creative fulcrum behind a direct front three.
Both lineups carry probable rather than confirmed status, though Germany's sources are marginally more consistent across credible outlets. Greece have adjusted their selection following an injury absence, lending their XI a slightly speculative edge, so minor changes at kickoff cannot be entirely ruled out.
Our Verdict
Greece's double chance, covering a home win or draw, looks the shrewd pick here. Ivan Jovanovic's side sit top of Group A2 with seven points from three matches, unbeaten throughout, and already hold a 1-0 victory over Germany from the reverse fixture. That result gives them a clear tactical blueprint. The home price at 3.75 reflects genuine respect for a side that has outperformed expectations in League A, while the draw at 3.75 provides additional cover. Our tip: 1X, Greece or Draw.
Odds correct at time of publication.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the best bet for Greece vs Germany?
The double chance covering Greece or a draw looks the most compelling wager here. Greece lead Group A2, already beat Germany 1-0 in the reverse fixture, and face a heavily rotated visiting side missing Havertz, Musiala, Kimmich, and several others. With Germany managing just three goals from 74 shots across their last five matches, the 3.75 or home win feels firmly justified.
What time does Greece vs Germany kick off?
Greece vs Germany kicks off at 18:45 UTC on Sunday, 4th October 2026. The match will be played in Greece, with the hosts carrying the advantage of a partisan home crowd behind them as they look to consolidate their position at the top of UEFA Nations League Group A2.
Where can I watch Greece vs Germany on TV?
Broadcast arrangements for UEFA Nations League fixtures vary by territory and are subject to change closer to kickoff. In the United Kingdom, coverage is typically shared between Channel 4 and Sky Sports, whilst German viewers can expect coverage on RTL or ZDF. We recommend checking your local listings to confirm the precise channel for this fixture.
What is Greece's recent record against Germany?
Greece's recent record against Germany makes for remarkable reading. The Greeks claimed a 1-0 victory over Germany in the reverse Nations League fixture at the end of September, a result that underlines their growing confidence against traditionally stronger sides. That win helped Greece to the summit of Group A2 and provides Jovanovic's side with a clear tactical and psychological reference point heading into this rematch.