Burnley
Derby County
>Burnley vs Derby County Prediction & Betting Tips – 19/09/2026
Turf Moor hosts a fixture that neither side can afford to lose when Burnley welcome Derby County on Saturday 19 September in the Championship. Both clubs find themselves mired in the relegation zone, with the Clarets rooted to the foot of the table and the Rams only two places above them. A first league win of the campaign is the prize on offer for whichever side can seize the initiative. With form this poor on both sides, this is a genuine six-pointer carrying enormous consequences for the season ahead.
Match Analysis
Burnley enter this Championship clash as clear favorites at 1.83, backed by an extraordinary head-to-head record and a squad galvanized by manager Nicky Hayen's 'must win' declaration. Turf Moor urgency is real, with the Clarets still seeking their first league win of the season.
- 10 wins in the last 15 H2H meetings, with Derby's last victory in this fixture dating back to January 2007.
- 2-1 winners in the reverse fixture on 26 August 2025, confirming Burnley's recent superiority over Derby.
- 1.14 goals scored per match this season edges Derby's 0.86, giving Burnley a meaningful attacking advantage.
- Captain Kyle Walker and manager Hayen have publicly declared a 'must win' mentality, boosting home crowd intensity.
Derby County arrive at Turf Moor priced at 4.20, burdened by three consecutive league defeats and a crippling injury list. With Forsyth, Murkin, and Clarke all sidelined and Brewster doubtful, Paul Warne's squad depth is severely tested heading into this fixture.
- Derby have lost three straight Championship matches, including a 2-1 home defeat to Birmingham City.
- Four confirmed absentees, including Forsyth, Murkin, and Clarke, gut Derby's defensive and midfield structure.
- Derby have not won at Turf Moor in over 18 years, a psychological burden compounding their current poor form.
Key point: With Burnley conceding a Championship-high 16 goals and both attacks misfiring, the under 2.5 goals market at 1.91 offers a compelling alternative angle.
Form & Statistics: Burnley vs Derby County
Burnley
Recent form
Season statistics (5)
Derby County
Recent form
Season statistics (5)
Burnley vs Derby County: Head-to-Head
Average statistics (recent meetings)
Lineups: Burnley vs Derby County
Burnley
Starters
- 1 Max Weiß
- 2 Oliver Sonne
- 3 Kyle Walker
- 4 Igor Julio
- 5 Connor Roberts
- 6 Ugo Raghouber
- 7 Max Alleyne
- 8 Aaron Ramsey
- 9 Josh Laurent
- 10 Largie Ramazani
- 11 Zeki Amdouni
Bench
- Reo Hatate
- Jamie Vardy
- Armando Broja
Absent
- Dastan Satpaev (injury)
- Mike Tresor (injury)
- Manuel Benson (injury)
- Josh Cullen (injury)
- Lucas Pires (injury)
- Jaydon Banel (injury)
- Bashir Humphreys (muscular injury)
- Louis Jordan Beyer (hamstring injury)
- Hannibal Mejbri (hamstring injury)
Derby County
Starters
- 1 Josh Vickers
- 2 Joe Ward
- 3 Sondre Langås
- 4 Eiran Cashin
- 5 Charlie Taylor
- 6 David Ozoh
- 7 Alex Mowatt
- 8 Ryan Hedges
- 9 Sammie Szmodics
- 10 Bobby Clark
- 11 Carlton Morris
Absent
- Lewis Travis (injury)
- Craig Forsyth (injury)
- Rhian Brewster (injury)
- Derry Murkin (injury)
- Patrick Agyemang (injury)
- Matt Clarke (injury)
- Henrik Meister (concussion protocols)
- Jacob Widell Zetterström (knee ligament damage (2 months))
- Filip Bilbija (back injury)
Medium confidence
Both sides line up in a 4-2-3-1, setting the stage for a tactically familiar Championship contest at Turf Moor. Zeki Amdouni leads the Burnley attack with Largie Ramazani providing width, while Derby's double pivot of David Ozoh and Alex Mowatt will look to screen and dictate tempo from deep.
Derby's probable XI carries slightly stronger sourcing across three outlets, lending it marginally more confidence than Burnley's two-source projection. Sammie Szmodics operating behind Carlton Morris gives the visitors a creative threat on the break, and how Burnley's midfield pair manage that channel could prove the defining tactical battle.
Our Verdict
Despite their woeful form this season, Burnley to win at 1.83 represents our pick. The Clarets' head-to-head record is compelling: unbeaten in 13 successive meetings with Derby, whose last victory at Turf Moor came back in January 2007. Derby's injury crisis further weakens a side already struggling on the road. With Jamie Vardy now available and the home crowd desperate for a breakthrough, the hosts hold enough advantages. We also fancy under 2.5 goals at 1.91, given both sides' general lack of attacking fluency this term. Odds correct at time of publication.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the best bet for Burnley vs Derby County?
A Burnley home win is the standout selection here. The Clarets carry a commanding head-to-head record, Derby arrive decimated by injury, and Nicky Hayen's side are primed for a reaction at Turf Moor. With the home win available at 1.83, there is genuine value in backing Burnley to claim three points at the eighth attempt this season.
What time does Burnley vs Derby County kick off?
This Championship fixture kicks off at 14:00 UTC on Saturday, 19 September 2026. The match takes place at Turf Moor, Burnley's historic ground in Lancashire, which has long served as a formidable fortress for the Clarets and should provide a suitably charged atmosphere given the urgency surrounding this fixture.
Where can I watch Burnley vs Derby County on TV?
Broadcast arrangements for this Championship fixture have not been confirmed in our data. We would recommend checking the official listings of Sky Sports and TNT Sports, the primary rights holders for EFL Championship football in the United Kingdom, as well as your regional broadcaster or streaming service for the most up-to-date coverage details.
What is Burnley's recent record against Derby County?
Burnley's record against Derby County is remarkably dominant. The Clarets have won 10 of the last 15 meetings between the sides, including a 2-1 victory in the reverse fixture on 26 August 2025. Most strikingly, Derby have not beaten Burnley since January 2007, a run spanning nearly two decades that weighs heavily in the home side's favour.