The new Premier League season is only five weeks’ old, but patterns are forming and narratives are being attached to certain clubs based on their early form.
Brighton are flying, Spurs are a bust yet again, Manchester United already need a new manager and Hull City are on their way to Europe.
Of course, we all know that so much can (and will) change over the course of a campaign. But which teams are actually good and which ones are flattering to deceive?
Advanced analytics don’t have all the answers, but they can give us a good indication of who is performing well and who is not. Expected goals, for instance, measure the quality of a shot depending on where it is taken from.
Judging by this metric, Brighton seem to be the real deal. They have accumulated an impressive 11.49xG, the most of any side so far. A big chunk of that number comes from their 5-0 win over Coventry City, but they have also faced Chelsea, United and Arsenal so far, so it’s not like they have had an easy run of it.
Manchester City are just behind him in the xG table, but Brentford, United and Sunderland surprisingly also make the top five. Perhaps the Bees’ being so high up shouldn’t come as a surprise given their strong start, but it is nonetheless jarring seeing them above so many big clubs.
United, though, have been disappointing thus far, winning just once in the Premier League this term. They have not looked nearly as good as they did when Michael Carrick first took over, although their xG can partly be explained by the fact they have faced two promoted sides so far.
Arsenal are sixth in terms of xG, though they are top when it comes to expected goals conceded (xGC), allowing just 4.04xGC.
Liverpool have yet to fire on all cylinders under new boss Andoni Iraola, though 8.34xG is still a healthy number and they remain unbeaten in the league.
Not far behind them is Ipswich Town, who right bang in the middle of the table with 7.72xG, suggesting they might have enough in attack to mount a credible survival bid.
The Tractor Boys are even ahead of Chelsea, who are down in 12th despite possessing a captivating frontline. One would expect them to be higher in this table, but more worryingly for Xabi Alonso they are 15th in terms of xGC. The Blues really need to improve defensively if they are to qualify for next season’s UEFA Champions League.
There are three big clubs who should be even more worried right now, namely Newcastle United, who are in the bottom five for both xG and xGC. Though they are currently 9th in the real table with just one defeat so far, the performances have not been inspiring and we can expect a drop off in results over time unless Matthias Jaissle inspires an improvement.
Tottenham Hotspur, of course, are about as bad as their results so far have suggested, creating a mere 1xG per game. That said, they are 10th for xGC, so if they can just get their act together up front, then there is room for them to grow.
Aston Villa, however, have even more to worry about, despite just beating Spurs 3-2 at the weekend. They are bottom for xG and fifth from bottom for xGC. Unai Emery’s men have recovered from poor starts in the past, but on this evidence they are fortunate to have the points they already do.
Arsenal
Aston Villa
Bournemouth
Opinion/Features
Brighton first, Man Utd in top four? The Premier League xG table after five weeks
Which teams have accumulated the most expected goals so far?