Estoril
Casa Pia
>Estoril vs Casa Pia Prediction & Betting Tips – 20/09/2026
Two sides rooted to the foot of the Liga Portugal table meet at the Estádio António Coimbra da Mota on Saturday evening in what shapes up as a genuine relegation six-pointer. Estoril, 17th on two points, welcome Casa Pia, who prop up the entire division with a solitary point. Neither club has tasted victory in weeks, and the consequences of another slip here could prove devastating. With the campaign still in its early stages, this fixture already carries the weight of a season-defining occasion.
Match Analysis
Estoril enter this relegation six-pointer as the home favorite at 1.73, backed by a commanding H2H record and a significantly tighter defensive structure than their opponents this season.
- 6 wins and 5 draws in the last 12 H2H meetings, unbeaten in the last 3 encounters.
- 1.33 goals conceded per game for Estoril, compared to Casa Pia's league-worst 2.5.
- 3 of Estoril's last 3 home league games finished Under 2.5, signaling a controlled defensive setup.
- Casa Pia's André Gomes is out injured, weakening their midfield and reducing away creativity.
Casa Pia arrive as clear underdogs at 4.33, rooted to the bottom of Liga Portugal with just 1 point and a scoring rate of only 0.17 goals per game, the worst attacking output in this fixture.
- Casa Pia concede 2.5 goals per game, the worst defensive record in this matchup.
- A 4-1 home hammering by Porto last time out exposed severe structural defensive weaknesses.
- 0.17 goals per game this season makes Casa Pia the least threatening attack in the division.
Key point: With both sides averaging under one goal per game combined, the double chance covering home or draw pairs well with 1.83, reflecting a historically low-scoring H2H pattern.
Form & Statistics: Estoril vs Casa Pia
Estoril
Recent form
Season statistics (5)
Casa Pia
Recent form
Season statistics (5)
Estoril vs Casa Pia: Head-to-Head
Average statistics (recent meetings)
Lineups: Estoril vs Casa Pia
Estoril
Starters
- 1 Joel Robles
- 2 Ricard Sánchez
- 3 Ismael Sierra
- 4 Antef Tsoungui
- 5 Fernando Medrano
- 6 Jordan Holsgrove
- 7 João Carvalho
- 8 André Lacximicant
- 9 Peixinho
- 10 Yanis Begraoui
Absent
- Ferro (Suspension (red card in last match))
- Xavi Sintes (Injury)
Casa Pia
Starters
- 1 GK (Backup)
- 2 David Sousa
- 3 João Goulart
- 4 Pedro Rosas
- 5 André Geraldes
- 6 Kevin Prieto
- 7 Lawrence Ofori
- 8 Selvi Clua
- 9 João Rego
- 10 Rochinha
- 11 Alassana Jatta
Absent
- André Gomes (Muscle injury)
Low confidence
Both sides line up in a 4-2-3-1 mirror, though it is worth treating these selections with a degree of caution, as both are speculated rather than confirmed. The symmetry of shape means the contest in the two central midfield pivots could prove decisive in determining who controls the tempo at Estoril.
For the visitors, Rochinha offers the creative threat most likely to unlock a compact home defensive block, while Estoril will look to Peixinho to provide the link play between midfield and their lone striker. With formations identical and confidence in both lineups similarly limited, the tactical picture may yet shift before kickoff.
Our Verdict
Our pick is the double chance 1X, backing Estoril to win or draw at home. The hosts remain unbeaten in their last three meetings with Casa Pia, and home advantage matters most when survival is at stake. Casa Pia's wretched record of 0.17 goals per match this season makes an away victory unlikely; the home price at 1.73 underlines where the value sits. Under 2.5 goals at 1.83 pairs well as a secondary selection given both sides' toothless attacks. Odds correct at time of publication.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the best bet for Estoril vs Casa Pia?
The double chance covering Estoril or a draw is the most coherent wager here, supported by the home side's superior defensive record and a dominant H2H history. Estoril concede just 1.33 goals per match compared to Casa Pia's 2.5, and with Casa Pia scoring at a league-worst rate, backing the home side or a draw at 1.73 represents sound value.
What time does Estoril vs Casa Pia kick off?
Estoril vs Casa Pia kicks off at 17:00 UTC on Sunday, 20th September 2026. The fixture takes place at the Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril's compact home ground on the Portuguese Riviera, where the hosts will be keen to exploit their familiar surroundings in what is a pivotal relegation six-pointer.
Where can I watch Estoril vs Casa Pia on TV?
Broadcast arrangements for Liga Portugal fixtures can vary depending on your territory. We recommend checking your local sports broadcaster or streaming platform for live coverage details. In Portugal, matches are typically available via Sport TV. International viewers should consult regional sports channels or official Liga Portugal streaming partners for availability.
What is Estoril's recent record against Casa Pia?
Estoril hold a commanding H2H record over the last 12 meetings with Casa Pia, claiming six wins and five draws against just one defeat. Notably, the two sides have not met in a fixture that Casa Pia won across the last three encounters, which produced one Estoril victory and two draws, including a goalless draw most recently.