Estonia
Bulgaria
>Estonia vs Bulgaria Prediction & Betting Tips – 16/11/2026
Estonia welcome Bulgaria to close out their Nations League League C group campaign on 16 November 2026, with a 17:00 kickoff. The hosts have already secured at least a play-off berth for promotion to League B, yet victory here could seal the group title outright. Their September meeting finished goalless, and Estonia arrive in their finest form since late 2022. Bulgaria, meanwhile, have endured a difficult spell, managing just a draw and a defeat from their recent outings. The stakes could hardly be clearer for both sides.
Match Analysis
Estonia enter this decisive Nations League fixture as the home favorite at 2.05, backed by an exceptional defensive record of just 0.25 goals conceded per game and a 75% clean sheet rate across the campaign, with a group title still within reach.
- 0.25 goals conceded per game in the Nations League, the best defensive rate in this matchup.
- 75% clean sheet rate across the Nations League campaign signals elite defensive organization at home.
- Coach Henn confirmed attacking intent after the 1-0 win over Luxembourg, signalling genuine ambition for three points.
- Estonia chase a group title, providing a clear motivational edge over a Bulgaria side playing for pride only.
Bulgaria arrive as the underdog at 3.60, stripped of key attackers Kiril Despodov and Martin Minchev through injury, and carrying a leaky defensive record of 1.25 goals conceded per game with only a 25% clean sheet rate across the Nations League.
- Despodov and Minchev both absent, removing Bulgaria's two most dangerous attacking outlets.
- Bulgaria concede 1.25 goals per game in the Nations League, the worst rate in this matchup by a clear margin.
- Kovachev called up as emergency cover, meaning Bulgaria field a makeshift attack in a hostile away fixture.
Key point: With the only previous meeting ending 0-0 and Estonia averaging just 0.5 goals scored per game, a tight low-scoring contest strongly favors backing the draw as part of the 1X combination using 3.00.
Form & Statistics: Estonia vs Bulgaria
Estonia
Season statistics
Bulgaria
Recent form
Season statistics (2)
Lineups: Estonia vs Bulgaria
Estonia
Starters
- 1 Karl Hein
- 2 Maksim Paskotsi
- 3 Erko Tougjas
- 4 Karol Mets
- 5 Rasmus Peetson
- 6 Michael Schjoenning-Larsen
- 7 Mattias Käit
- 8 Rocco Robert Shein
- 9 Kevor Palumets
- 10 Patrik Kristal
- 11 Karel Mustmaa
Bench
- Karl Andre Vallner
- Frank Liivak
- Tanel Tammik
- Mihhail Kolobov
- Martin Miller
- Mihkel Ainsalu
- Maksimilian Skvortsov
- Marten-Chris Paalberg
- Alex Tamm
Absent
- Mark Anders Lepik (ACL tear, out for remainder of 2026 season (10-12 months recovery))
- Vlasiy Sinyavskiy (Cruciate ligament injury)
- Markus Poom (Left squad for birth of second child)
Bulgaria
Starters
- 1 Daniel Naumov
- 2 Yoni Stoyanov
- 3 Stefan Velkov
- 4 Emil Tsenov
- 5 Hristiyan Petrov
- 6 Andrian Kraev
- 7 Ilia Gruev
- 8 Lukas Petkov
- 9 Georgi Rusev
- 10 Kristiyan Balov
- 11 Atanas Iliev
Bench
- Dimitar Mitov
- A. Bozhev
- A. Hristov
- P. Panayotov
- A. Chandarov
- Stanislav Ivanov
Absent
- Martin Minchev (Injury sustained on November 6, ruled out for final two Nations League matches)
- Kiril Despodov (Long-term absentee)
Medium confidence
A 5-3-2 against a 4-2-3-1 sets up an intriguing structural contest, with Estonia's wing-backs likely to be the key battleground. Mattias Käit will be central to how the hosts build from midfield, while Bulgaria's double pivot offers protection to a back four that has been tested in recent fixtures.
Bulgaria arrive with shape and continuity on their side, having confirmed much of this XI just days ago against Iceland. Atanas Iliev leads the line for the visitors, and Estonia's three-man defence will need to be disciplined to contain the movement behind him across a compact but potentially open Nations League encounter.
Our Verdict
Estonia's defensive record across this campaign is remarkable, with a 75% clean sheet rate and just 0.25 goals conceded per match. Bulgaria, meanwhile, arrive off the back of a defeat and a draw in their recent outings, offering little to suggest they can break down a resolute Estonian side. The goalless draw in the reverse fixture reinforces the case for a low-scoring affair. Our pick is the double chance 1X, backed by the home price at 2.05, which reflects Estonia's superior form and positional strength heading into this final group match.
Odds correct at time of publication.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the best bet for Estonia vs Bulgaria?
The double chance covering Estonia or a draw stands out as the most compelling wager here. Estonia's defensive solidity, conceding just 0.25 goals per match in this Nations League campaign, contrasts sharply with Bulgaria's vulnerabilities, and with key attackers absent from the visitors' ranks, the home side's 2.05 reflects a genuine, stats-backed edge worth backing.
What time does Estonia vs Bulgaria kick off?
Estonia vs Bulgaria kicks off at 17:00 UTC on 16 November 2026. The fixture takes place in Estonia, with the hosts looking to seal top spot in UEFA Nations League C Group 6. Be sure to adjust for your local time zone when planning ahead.
Where can I watch Estonia vs Bulgaria on TV?
Broadcast arrangements for UEFA Nations League fixtures vary by territory, so we recommend checking your local sports broadcaster's schedule or the official UEFA platform for confirmed coverage details. Streaming services tied to national football associations may also carry the match live, depending on your region.
What is Estonia's recent record against Bulgaria?
The two sides met most recently on 29 September 2026 in this same Nations League group stage, with the match ending nil-nil. That result underlines the tight, cautious nature of contests between these nations, with neither side able to find a breakthrough, a pattern that looks likely to persist in this return fixture.