View Odds >Greece vs Italy Prediction & Betting Tips – 07/06/2026
Greece welcome Italy to the Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis on Saturday evening for a friendly international that carries more weight than the label suggests. Both nations missed out on the 2026 World Cup, lending this fixture a sharp edge as each side auditions fresh faces ahead of the next Nations League cycle. For Greece, coach Ivan Jovanović needs a morale-boosting result on home soil after a difficult spell. Italy, under interim boss Silvio Baldini, arrive in Crete with a youthful, largely uncapped squad seeking to rebuild confidence and identity.
Match Analysis
Italy enter this Athens friendly as the marginal favorite at 3.30, backed by a FIFA ranking of 12th versus Greece's 47th and a commanding 7-1 all-time head-to-head record. Interim coach Silvio Baldini arrives with momentum after a 1-0 win over Luxembourg.
- 7-1 all-time H2H record against Greece, with 2 wins in the last 3 meetings.
- 5W-2D-1L across Italy's last 8 matches, the strongest recent form of either side.
- Francesco Pio Esposito scored the winner vs Luxembourg, showing the young attack can deliver.
- Greece have conceded 7 goals in their last 5 matches, exposing clear defensive fragility.
Greece face long odds at 2.00 and arrive in poor shape, with a 1W-3D-4L run across their last 8 games. The absences of Ioannidis, Bakasetas, and Karetsas strip Ivan Jovanovic's side of their key creative and attacking weapons.
- Greece are missing three first-choice attackers: Ioannidis, Bakasetas, and Karetsas all ruled out.
- 1W in last 8 games reflects a side badly lacking consistency and confidence.
- Greece's 7 goals conceded in 5 matches leaves them exposed against even an experimental Italy attack.
Key point: With Retegui absent and both squads in rebuild mode, a low-scoring affair is plausible; the draw at 3.30 offers value given Italy's heavily rotated, uncapped-heavy lineup.
Form & Statistics: Greece vs Italy
Greece
Recent form
Season statistics (2)
Italy
Recent form
Season statistics (1)
Greece vs Italy: Head-to-Head
Average statistics (recent meetings)
Lineups: Greece vs Italy
Greece
Starters
- 1 Odysseas Vlachodimos
- 2 Giorgos Vagiannidis
- 3 Panagiotis Retsos
- 4 Konstantinos Mavropanos
- 5 Kostas Tsimikas
- 6 Dimitrios Kourbelis
- 7 Christos Mouzakitis
- 8 Giorgos Masouras
- 9 Christos Zafeiris
- 10 Christos Tzolis
- 11 Vangelis Pavlidis
Absent
- Fotis Ioannidis (injury)
- Tasos Bakasetas (injury)
- Kostas Karetsas (injury)
Italy
Starters
- 1 Gianluigi Donnarumma
- 2 Costantino Favasuli
- 3 Pietro Comuzzo
- 4 Filippo Mané
- 5 Davide Bartesaghi
- 6 Niccolò Pisilli
- 7 Luca Lipani
- 8 Cher Ndour
- 9 Seydou Fini
- 10 Francesco Pio Esposito
- 11 Luca Koleosho
Absent
- Lorenzo Venturino (injury (withdrew from squad))
- Mateo Retegui (missing from squad)
Medium confidence
A 4-2-3-1 against a 4-3-3 shapes up as the tactical contest here, with Greece looking to funnel play through a compact double pivot and Vangelis Pavlidis as the focal point up front. Italy, meanwhile, press with a fluid three-man midfield designed to dominate possession in the central zones.
Spalletti has opted for a notably youthful Italian side, and Gianluigi Donnarumma stands as the clear senior presence behind a back four with limited international experience. Greece will fancy their chances of exploiting that inexperience, particularly down the flanks in what should be an open and instructive friendly ahead of the World Cup.
Our Verdict
Our pick is the Draw or Away (X2) double chance, priced attractively when you consider Italy's away odds at 3.30. Italy's world ranking advantage, sitting 35 places above Greece, and a dominant head-to-head record support the selection. Their narrow win over Luxembourg showed a young squad capable of grinding out results. Greece's recent draw against Sweden was spirited but underlined defensive frailties. With both sides rebuilding, Italy's deeper talent pool edges the balance. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. For help, visit GambleAware.co.uk
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the best bet for Greece vs Italy?
The draw or away double chance marginally favours Italy, given their superior FIFA ranking (12th versus 47th) and a 7-1 all-time head-to-head advantage. However, Baldini's experimental, youth-heavy squad introduces genuine uncertainty, keeping the draw very much alive. The 3.30 and 3.30 options both merit consideration, with an X2 lean reflecting that cautious confidence.
What time does Greece vs Italy kick off?
This friendly fixture kicks off at 19:00 UTC on Sunday, 7th June 2026. The match takes place at the Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis in Greece. Supporters should check their local time zone to confirm the precise kickoff hour in their region.
Where can I watch Greece vs Italy on TV?
Broadcast details for this friendly have not been confirmed in our available data. We recommend checking your local sports broadcasters, national television listings, or streaming platforms that hold rights to UEFA international friendlies in your territory for the most up-to-date coverage information.
What is Greece's recent record against Italy?
Greece's recent record against Italy makes for sobering reading. Italy have won seven of the two sides' all-time meetings, with Greece claiming just one victory. In the fixtures since 2008, Italy have won two of the last three encounters, with the sole result not in Italy's favour being a 1-1 draw.
