Greece
Italy
>Greece vs Italy Prediction & Betting Tips – 07/06/2026
Greece welcome Italy to the Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis on 7 June 2026 in a friendly international that carries more subtext than the fixture's billing suggests. Neither side qualified for the 2026 World Cup, lending this encounter a sharper edge as both nations look to lay foundations for their upcoming UEFA Nations League campaigns. Greece's frustration at facing what amounts to an Italian Under-21 contingent, rather than a full-strength squad, adds a layer of tension to proceedings in Heraklion.
Match Analysis
Italy arrive as the structural favorite despite a radical squad overhaul under interim coach Silvio Baldini. Priced at 3.25, the Azzurri carry 7 H2H wins against Greece and an xG baseline of 2.18 per match across recent fixtures.
- 7 H2H wins for Italy against Greece, reflecting a deep structural quality gap.
- 8 wins in last 10 overall matches underlines Italy's consistent competitive output.
- Francesco Pio Esposito's continued scoring form gives Italy a reliable attacking focal point.
- Donnarumma, the sole senior pedigree starter, anchors the backline and raises Italy's defensive floor.
Greece host this friendly at 2.10 but face a peculiar challenge: frustration at Italy fielding an effective U21 side, combined with their own poor run of just 1 win in their last 10 matches, undermines confidence despite home advantage.
- Greece's recent form reads DDL, with only 1 win across their last 10 competitive outings.
- Defensive lapses were exposed in a 2-2 draw with Sweden, signaling vulnerability at the back.
- Greece have failed to qualify for the World Cup, adding psychological pressure to this home fixture.
Key point: With both squads inexperienced and Greece averaging 2.67 goals per game at home, the draw double chance covering X2 suits cautious bettors seeking value on 3.25.
Form & Statistics: Greece vs Italy
Greece
Recent form
Season statistics (3)
Italy
Recent form
Season statistics (3)
Greece vs Italy: Head-to-Head
Average statistics (recent meetings)
Lineups: Greece vs Italy
Greece
Starters
- 1 Odysseas Vlachodimos
- 2 Panagiotis Retsos
- 3 Pantelis Hatzidiakos
- 4 Konstantinos Koulierakis
- 5 Georgios Vagiannidis
- 6 Nectarios Triantis
- 7 Christos Mouzakitis
- 8 Giorgos Kyriakopoulos
- 9 Christos Tzolis
- 10 Anastasios Douvikas
- 11 Giorgos Masouras
Bench
- Charalampos Kostoulas
- Vangelis Pavlidis
- Lazaros Rota
- David Tetteh
- Christos Zafeiris
- Kostas Tsimikas
- Thanasis Androutsos
- Alexandros Kyziridis
Italy
Starters
- 1 Gianluigi Donnarumma
- 2 Honest Ahanor
- 3 Pietro Comuzzo
- 4 Fabio Chiarodia
- 5 Davide Bartesaghi
- 6 Niccolò Pisilli
- 7 Luca Lipani
- 8 Cher Ndour
- 9 Luca Koleosho
- 10 Francesco Pio Esposito
- 11 Jeff Ekhator
Bench
- Filippo Mané
- Francesco Camarda
- Luca Reggiani
- Giacomo Faticanti
- Matteo Dagasso
- Costantino Favasuli
Absent
- Marco Verratti (Rested/Not selected for youth-focused friendly squad; previously injured in March 2026 for World Cup play-offs.)
- Giovanni Leoni (Rested/Not selected for youth-focused friendly squad; previously injured in March 2026 for World Cup play-offs.)
- Matteo Gabbia (Rested/Not selected for youth-focused friendly squad; previously injured in March 2026 for World Cup play-offs.)
- Giovanni Di Lorenzo (Rested/Not selected for youth-focused friendly squad; previously injured in March 2026 for World Cup play-offs.)
- Destiny Udogie (Rested/Not selected for youth-focused friendly squad; previously injured in March 2026 for World Cup play-offs.)
- Nicolo Rovella (Rested/Not selected for youth-focused friendly squad; previously injured in March 2026 for World Cup play-offs.)
- Antonio Vergara (Rested/Not selected for youth-focused friendly squad; previously injured in March 2026 for World Cup play-offs.)
- Gianluca Scamacca (Rested/Not selected for youth-focused friendly squad; previously had adductor problem in March 2026.)
- Alessandro Bastoni (Rested/Not selected for youth-focused friendly squad; previously had a knock in March 2026.)
- Gianluca Mancini (Rested/Not selected for youth-focused friendly squad; previously had fatigue in March 2026.)
- Sandro Tonali (Rested/Not selected for youth-focused friendly squad; previously on low workload in March 2026.)
- Riccardo Calafiori (Rested/Not selected for youth-focused friendly squad; previously felt discomfort in March 2026.)
- Federico Chiesa (Rested/Not selected for youth-focused friendly squad; previously had physical problems in March 2026.)
Both sides line up with confirmed selections, setting up a 3-4-1-2 versus 4-3-3 contest in Athens. Greece's three-man defence offers width through the flanks, with Christos Tzolis operating in the hole behind a front two, giving the hosts a compact, layered shape in the final third.
Italy's youthful 4-3-3 places considerable creative responsibility on a midfield trio with limited senior international experience. Francesco Pio Esposito leads the attack, and Luciano Spalletti's side will look to press high and use the width of their front line to stretch Greece's defensive block.
Our Verdict
Our pick is X2 (Draw or Away) at a combined value reflected by the away price of 3.25 and the draw at 3.25. Italy's head-to-head dominance, with seven wins to Greece's solitary victory across all meetings, underpins the Azzurri's credentials even with a youthful squad. Greece's recent form of one defeat and two draws lacks the cutting edge to trouble a side riding two wins from three. Baldini's young group carry genuine momentum, and Francesco Pio Esposito's scoring streak adds a potent threat. Odds and markets may vary by bookmaker and are subject to change.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the best bet for Greece vs Italy?
The draw or away win looks the shrewdest angle here. Italy carry a superior H2H record and a strong xG baseline, yet Baldini has fielded an effectively U21 side, with Donnarumma the sole senior regular. Greece's home fixtures average 2.67 goals, so a draw remains the likeliest outcome. The double chance covering Italy suits the 3.25 price.
What time does Greece vs Italy kick off?
Greece vs Italy kicks off at 19:00 UTC on 7th June 2026, which corresponds to 22:00 local time in Greece. The match takes place at the Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis. It is a friendly international fixture, with both sides using the occasion to assess their respective squads ahead of future competitions.
Where can I watch Greece vs Italy on TV?
Broadcast arrangements for this friendly international vary by territory and have not been confirmed in our preview data. We would recommend checking your local sports broadcaster's schedule or official football association channels for the most up-to-date television and streaming listings ahead of the 19:00 UTC kickoff.
What is Greece's recent record against Italy?
Italy hold a commanding head-to-head record, claiming seven wins to Greece's solitary victory across all meetings between the two sides. That historical dominance underlines the Azzurri's structural superiority, though the context of tonight's fixture, with Italy fielding a heavily rotated, inexperienced squad, means past results offer only a partial guide.
