Belgium
Italy
>Belgium vs Italy Prediction & Betting Tips – 15/11/2026
Belgium welcome Italy to a venue yet to be confirmed on 15 November 2026 in a decisive UEFA Nations League League A Group 1 fixture. The stakes could hardly be higher. Italy sit second on seven points, just one ahead of their hosts, while France lead the section on ten. A draw would suit the Azzurri; defeat would leave Belgium's quarter-final hopes hanging by a thread. Following Belgium's 2-0 victory in the reverse fixture back in September, this rematch carries genuine needle and significance for both sides.
Match Analysis
Italy arrive as the clear favorite at 3.20, sitting second in the Nations League group with 7 points and a superior goal difference. Spallanzani's squad is near full strength, with Donnarumma, Barella, Tonali, and Kean all available.
- Unbeaten in 5 of last 7 H2H meetings, Italy hold a commanding historical edge over Belgium.
- 7 points and +3 goal difference in the current group give Italy the stronger platform heading into this decider.
- Dimarco and Cristante returning from injury, giving Mancini a more complete and balanced squad for a must-win match.
- Qualification incentive is sharp: a win secures Italy's quarter-final spot and leapfrogs Belgium in the standings.
Belgium face this match severely depleted, priced at 2.20 to win on home soil. Courtois is absent from international duty, Onana is out with a ruptured ACL, Debast is injured, and key attackers Openda and Fofana are also unavailable, leaving Van Bommel with a makeshift lineup.
- No recognised striker in the XI after Openda and Fofana omissions gut Belgium's attacking output.
- Senne Lammens starts in goal in place of Courtois, a significant drop in quality between the posts.
- Onana's ACL absence removes Belgium's defensive midfield anchor, leaving the backline exposed to Italy's press.
Key point: With both defenses under pressure and Belgium's attack badly depleted, the under 2.5 goals market at 2.10 offers a compelling alternative angle to the outright result.
Form & Statistics: Belgium vs Italy
Belgium
Recent form
Season statistics (5)
Italy
Recent form
Season statistics (2)
Lineups: Belgium vs Italy
Belgium
Starters
- 1 Senne Lammens
- 2 Timothy Castagne
- 3 Brandon Mechele
- 4 Nathan Ngoy
- 5 Maxim De Cuyper
- 6 Nicolas Raskin
- 7 Youri Tielemans
- 8 Kevin De Bruyne
- 9 Mika Godts
- 10 Diego Moreira
- 11 Charles De Ketelaere
Absent
- Thibaut Courtois (Taking a break from international duty for the Nations League.)
- Zeno Debast (Leg injury, held out of action by his club.)
- Amadou Onana (Ruptured ACL at the World Cup in July 2026 (long-term injury).)
- Koni De Winter (Refused call-up due to unhappiness about being left on the bench in previous games.)
- Matias Fernandez-Pardo (Illness and limited training.)
- Malick Fofana (Left out of the squad.)
- Lois Openda (Left out of the squad.)
Italy
Starters
- 1 Gianluigi Donnarumma
- 2 Giovanni Di Lorenzo
- 3 Gianluca Mancini
- 4 Giorgio Scalvini
- 5 Riccardo Calafiori
- 6 Sandro Tonali
- 7 Alessandro Romano
- 8 Nicolò Barella
- 9 Nicolò Cambiaghi
- 10 Francesco Pio Esposito
- 11 Moise Kean
Absent
- Manuel Locatelli (Sidelined through injury in September 2026; not included in November squad.)
- Federico Chiesa (Dropped from squad in March 2026 due to injury; not included in November squad.)
Low confidence
Both sides are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 formation, setting the stage for a tactically intriguing mirror match. It is worth treating these selections with some caution, however, as both XIs remain speculated rather than confirmed, each drawn from a previous meeting between these sides and the respective November squad announcements.
For Belgium, Kevin De Bruyne will be the creative fulcrum in midfield, whilst Italy will look to Nicolò Barella to drive their press and link play in what promises to be a fiercely contested central battle across both lines.
Our Verdict
Our pick for this fixture is Draw or Away (X2), backing Italy to avoid defeat. The Azzurri hold a commanding head-to-head record, winning four of the last seven meetings and going unbeaten across five consecutive encounters before Belgium's September victory. Italy sit a point above their hosts in the group, and with quarter-final qualification at stake, Mancini's side will be fiercely motivated. The away price at 3.20 underlines the market's respect for Italy, while the draw at 3.50 offers further cover. Historical pedigree and current form both favour the visitors here.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the best bet for Belgium vs Italy?
The draw or away double chance looks the most compelling option here, with Italy the stronger side on paper. Belgium are severely weakened by the absences of Courtois, Onana, and Debast, while Italy boast Donnarumma, Barella, and Tonali. With the Azzurri needing a result to secure second place, backing them not to lose carries genuine appeal at 3.20.
What time does Belgium vs Italy kick off?
Belgium vs Italy kicks off at 19:45 UTC on Sunday, 15 November 2026. The match is a UEFA Nations League League A fixture, though the precise stadium location has not been confirmed in available match data. Supporters are advised to check their local listings for any venue updates ahead of kickoff.
Where can I watch Belgium vs Italy on TV?
Broadcast details for Belgium vs Italy have not been confirmed in the available information. Viewers in the UK should check listings from broadcasters such as Channel 4 or Sky Sports, who typically hold rights to UEFA Nations League fixtures. Supporters outside the UK are advised to consult their local television providers for coverage details.
What is Belgium's recent record against Italy?
Belgium's recent record against Italy makes for sobering reading for the Red Devils. Italy were unbeaten in five successive meetings prior to Belgium's 2-0 victory in the reverse fixture earlier in this Nations League campaign. Across the last seven head-to-head encounters, Italy have claimed four wins, underlining their historical superiority in this particular rivalry.