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Fantasy Premier League: Three essential tips ahead of FPL Gameweek 38

Fantasy Premier League will come to an end for this season on Sunday when the final round of matches takes place. 

It feels like the year has flown by, but we’ve got one last FPL column for you to provide the best tips on transfers and captaincy ahead of what could prove to be an explosive last day of the campaign.

FPL GW38 Deadline: Sunday, 19 May, 14:30 pm BST.

Join our FPL league: xugc83

Fantasy Premier League: Three essential tips for FPL GW38

Don’t be afraid to take a hit

I would normally advise Fantasy Premier League managers to avoid taking hits on transfers as much as possible, unless it’s absolutely necessary. Very often it does not pay off; in fact it’s not uncommon for it to blow up in your face.

When it comes to the final few weeks of the season, though, I like to loosen up that rule I have for myself a little bit – and it’s paid off handsomely in years gone by.

On the final day of 2022/23 I took a bet on Harry Kane and Diogo Jota, while getting rid of Erling Haaland for a hit. It was the kind of move that would get me locked up in an asylum at any other stage of the season, but it worked out beautifully. I managed to rank 53k and finish on top of some tightly contested mini leagues after both players more than delivered.

But you have to be smart about your moves. No player is guaranteed to return points, but you have to be pretty sure that they are going to deliver the goods this weekend. If you’re gut is telling you that, then pull the trigger.

 

There are no more gameweeks after this – don’t be afraid to roll the dice.

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Don’t waste your last transfer on a defender

In that spirit, you should place your bets on attacking players. I see FPL managers pondering moves for defenders ahead of GW38, which is not only boring but the incorrect move in this writer’s opinion.

The final day is famously goal happy. As illustrated by our friends at ALLABOUTFPL below, the average goals per game is always greater than the season average.

Although full-backs often play a key role in attack these days, clean sheets are still the best route to points for defenders. There just won’t be many of those on Sunday.

There are a few exceptions that would make it reasonable to transfer in a defender. You might have the misfortune of not having at minimum three available players in the backline, in which case you’re potentially starting with 10 players instead of 11.

You might also have two free transfers heading into GW38 and using one of those on a defender could enable you to sign an expensively priced premium asset, such as Mo Salah or Kevin De Bruyne.

Six Premier League talking points ahead of the final day

Pick your captain based on your situation

There is one obvious pick for captaincy this week, and that’s Erling Haaland. The Norwegian has not been as inevitable as he was last season, but he remains the Premier League’s top goalscorer and faces a West Ham side that has conceded 71 goals this season, at home.

No player is projected to score more points in GW38 than Haaland, as per Fantasy Football Fix. The armband should automatically be on him, realistically.

And yet, for those chasing rank or position in mini leagues, it might not be so obvious. If you’re trying to overtake other FPL managers, then what is the point in picking the same captain as virtually everyone else?

There is a pretty established template in FPL at the moment, most managers (at least in the top million of the game) have similar teams, and there are very few standout differentials out there to make the, erm, difference.

 

Haaland is a safe bet, but it’s one that won’t gain you much ground on the field. There is potential for hauls elsewhere – Salah, Michael Olise, Cole Palmer, Phil Foden for instance – and maybe you get a slice of luck; Haaland fails to score and gets a booking, while your pick does gangbusters.

If you’re protecting rank and position, then Haaland as captain is an easy choice. Don’t overcomplicate things.

Read – 12 FPL tips to help you master Fantasy Premier League

See Also – Fantasy Premier League: 60 FPL team names for 2023/24

Premier League – Our non-Big Six end of season awards

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