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Is India Overlooking a Billion-Dollar Betting Opportunity?

Louis Hecq

India’s long-standing strategy against betting has largely relied on prohibition. Yet, these bans haven’t stopped people from placing bets-they’ve merely driven the activity underground or offshore, far from India’s tax system and outside its consumer protection framework.

Meanwhile, countries that brought betting into the open under strict regulation are seeing safer participation, stronger oversight, and significant public revenue.

This article argues-with data and examples-that India should move away from prohibition toward a regulated structure for online sports betting and iGaming, equipped with solid safeguards. Lessons from the UK, Brazil, Ontario (Canada), and the Philippines show how.

The Reality: Betting Is Already Happening-Just Not Safely or Legally

  • A booming underground market. According to a 2024 India Today report, illegal betting channels handle deposits worth around $100 billion annually, growing at nearly 30% per year. That’s capital leaving India’s formal economy and bypassing consumer protection.
  • Demand keeps breaking through. Despite periodic blocks, four major unlicensed sites attracted 1.6 billion visits in only three months, as found by a Digital India Foundation study-proof that prohibition hasn’t dampened appetite.
  • Mixed policy signals. Since October 1, 2023, India has imposed a 28% GST on online real-money gaming and casinos, establishing valuation rules and compliance requirements for offshore providers. Whether one agrees with the rate or not, it shows that the government acknowledges gambling’s existence-and the need to regulate it.
  • Even government experts favor regulation. The Law Commission of India’s 2018 Report (No. 276) found total prohibition difficult to enforce and recommended regulating betting and gambling instead.

The takeaway: Indians are betting regardless. Prohibition simply hands the market to unregulated operators, forfeiting tax income and player safety.

Blueprint for a Practical Indian Framework

  1. A central model law with state opt-in. While betting falls under state jurisdiction, Parliament can introduce a uniform framework (or interstate mechanism) that states can adopt. The Law Commission already highlighted this as a pragmatic route.
  2. Nationwide self-exclusion and age checks. India could replicate the UK’s GAMSTOP-style system for “one-click” exclusion across all operators, supported by Aadhaar-based age verification with strict privacy protections.
  3. Strong licensing standards.Draw on Brazil’s onshore presence rule and Ontario’s “conduct and manage” approach. Leading platforms like 10Cric, Baterybet, and 4rabet could operate under such a regime. Licenses should enforce:
    • robust KYC/AML protocols,
    • secure payments via Indian systems,
    • real-time data reporting APIs,
    • cooperation on sports integrity (e.g., suspicious-betting alerts), and
    • responsible advertising standards (no youth targeting, transparent odds, and risk disclosures).
  4. Focus on channelization. Define success by how much activity shifts to licensed platforms-target 80% or more within two to three years, as Ontario did. Publish quarterly statistics to keep progress transparent.
  5. Smart, balanced taxation. India’s 28% GST on online gaming already increased revenues dramatically (₹6,909 crore in six months, over a fourfold rise). Legalizing sports betting could expand that base further. Keep tax rates globally competitive to discourage illegal play, dedicate a portion to addiction prevention and sports integrity, and apply “sin-tax” principles that encourage safer participation.
  6. Firm action against illegal operators. Blend regulation with targeted enforcement-blocking payments and ads for unlicensed brands, as the UK and Brazil do. When players have legal, safe alternatives, enforcement becomes far more effective.

Global Models and Lessons for India

  • United Kingdom: A mature regulatory system pairs strict compliance with nationwide tools like self-exclusion and identity verification. Lesson: Effective regulation can coexist with tough action against illegal operators while protecting consumers.
  • Ontario (Canada): The province’s “channelization” model-where most betting moves to legal platforms-shows the power of transparency, central management, and responsible gaming tools.
  • Brazil: By focusing on licensing, KYC, onshore presence, and clear taxation, Brazil demonstrates that good fundamentals allow gradual, controlled evolution.
  • Philippines: The country’s selective approach targets criminal networks without dismantling legitimate, taxpaying operators-proving that harm reduction doesn’t require industry destruction.

Why Bans Fail and Regulation Works

  1. Consumer protection collapses. Illegal sites ignore self-exclusion, skip age verification, and avoid affordability checks. Tools like the UK’s GAMSTOP exist precisely because only regulated systems can enforce them.
  2. Integrity risks increase. Underground betting makes match-fixing harder to trace or prosecute. Regulated operators must report suspicious patterns to authorities-something the Law Commission cited after the IPL controversies.
  3. Massive tax losses. Ontario earned CA$3.2 billion, the Philippines’ PAGCOR pulled in PHP 112 billion, and the UK’s gambling sector contributes billions of pounds. India’s current approach taxes only parts of the ecosystem, missing out on huge legal revenue potential.
  4. Endless enforcement cycles. Traffic simply shifts to new mirror sites or offshore processors. Data showing billions of visits per quarter proves that demand will always find a way-unless redirected to licensed options.

Common Concerns, Addressed Clearly

  • “Legalization will fuel addiction.” Problem gambling requires enforceable tools and funding-things only regulation can deliver. The UK’s 530,000+ self-exclusions and Ontario’s programs are proof of that.
  • “Young people will start betting.” Tighter ad codes, verified age gates, and meaningful penalties for violations can significantly reduce underage exposure-but only through a licensed system.
  • “Match-fixing will rise.” Transparency deters corruption. Legal operators record every bet, flag irregularities, and cooperate with leagues and law enforcement.
  • “It won’t raise real revenue.” The UK, Ontario, and the Philippines already show multi-billion-dollar returns. Considering India’s size, potential annual revenues could easily reach tens of thousands of crores-funding healthcare, sports, and enforcement.

A Step-by-Step Path Forward

  1. Start with major sports like cricket. License a limited number of operators that meet high compliance and tech standards.
  2. Establish a National Betting Authority to regulate, publish data, and run self-exclusion systems-modeled on Ontario’s iGaming Ontario or the UK Gambling Commission.
  3. Mandate Indian payment systems and data storage, integrating KYC with UPI and banks, and requiring real-time suspicious-betting reporting.
  4. Clarify tax structures for both operators (GGR-based) and players (TDS-style), allocating a portion to addiction prevention and sports integrity.
  5. Run a “Go Legal” campaign with states and sports bodies to promote licensed options, block illegal ads, and guide fans toward verified platforms.
  6. Monitor and refine. Publish quarterly data on wagering, revenue, complaints, exclusions, and enforcement to keep the framework accountable.

The Cost of Delay

Each season that passes under prohibition sends billions offshore, leaves players unprotected, and wastes enforcement resources chasing domains. Countries that embraced regulation early now enjoy safer gaming environments and steady fiscal benefits.

India’s own policy evolution-from the Law Commission’s endorsement of regulation to the Centre’s 2023 GST reforms-already points in this direction. Prohibition has failed. Regulation, implemented responsibly, offers a safer, smarter, and more transparent future.

If the goal is to safeguard consumers, uphold sporting integrity, and retain economic value within the country, then a tightly regulated betting market isn’t a compromise-it’s progress in the public interest.