FIFA may have expanded the men’s World Cup to 48 teams, but that doesn’t mean qualification is necessarily a walk in the park for the biggest nations.Â
It’s been made easier, that’s for sure, but the pitfalls of the qualification campaign still remain and some teams have failed to avoid them.
Here are the biggest nations that could be watching from home next summer as relative minnows such as Cape Verde, Uzbekistan and Jordan compete in the US, Canada and Mexico.
The biggest nations at risk of missing the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Sweden
Only mathematics are keeping Sweden’s wafer thin hopes of reaching the World Cup alive. Jon Dahl Tomasson’s side have just one point from four games of their dreadful campaign.
Defeat to Kosovo on Monday all but assured they won’t be flying out to North America next summer, although they can still reach the playoffs. They must beat Switzerland and Slovenia in their final two games, and hope Kosovo lose both of theirs, while overcoming a four goal difference.
Despite possessing some quality players, particularly in attack, Sweden have not qualified for a major tournament since Euro 2020. The wait, surely, goes on.
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Cameroon
African qualification has always been ruthless. Previously, only five teams qualified from the continent. They were required to not only top their group, but win a subsequent play-off against another group winner. This is how Egypt and Mo Salah missed out in 2022 after losing to Senegal in a penalty shootout.
The new format is less cruel, with nine group winners qualifying for the World Cup and the four best runners-up going to the play-offs. Winning that alone won’t earn you a place at the tournament, though. They will go on to the inter-confederation play-offs, which will take place in the US in March 2026.
This is the route that Cameroon will have to take after finishing second in Group D behind Cape Verde, despite beating them 4-1 last summer. Defeat in the reverse fixture and draws with Angola, Libya and Eswatini proved their downfall, although they will consider themselves the strongest outfit in the play-offs.
Italy
It’s been over a decade since we last saw Italy at a World Cup. Even crazier still, they have won just one game in the competition since lifting the trophy in 2006.
The Azzurri are still very much in contention to reach next summer’s tournament after winning all but one of their opening four qualifiers. They had the misfortune of drawing an up-and-coming Norway, who have a 100 per cent record in six group games.
Italy can still top the group, but it requires them winning their final three matches, including against Norway next month, and the Norwegians dropping points against Estonia.
Gennaro Gattuso’s side have to beat Israel on Tuesday night before even thinking about automatic qualification. They are their closest rivals for a play-off spot; victory in Udine would virtually seal it.
The play-offs are an anxiety-inducing prospect for the Italians, though, after painful defeats to Sweden and North Macedonia in their last two World Cup qualification campaigns. Don’t rule out a three-peat.
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Costa Rica
Having reached for six of the last nine World Cups, Costa Rica can be considered tournament regulars at this stage. After their North American counterparts were named as co-hosts, the qualification process was made all the easier.
With the big dogs of CONCACAF not involved, only the so-called minnows stand in their way. But they have made hard work of it thus far, winning just one of their opening four games of the group stage.
Costa Rica currently sit two points behind Group C leaders Honduras, while Haiti sit one point behind them. They face both nations in their final two games, with only the group winners earning automatic qualification.
If they remain in second then they will head to the inter-confederation play-offs, where they will face even stiffer opposition.
Saudi Arabia
After qualifying for six of the last eight World Cups, it would be a major disappointment for Saudi Arabia to miss out on the biggest one yet. They still have two opportunities to make it after failing to clear the first hurdle.
Herve Renard’s men are currently competing in the round robin phase, against Iraq and Indonesia, after coming third in their qualification group. Following victory over Indonesia, it all comes down to a crunch meeting with Iraq on Tuesday night.
Win and they’re in. Lose, however, and they must play against the other round robin runner-up for a place in the inter-confederation play-offs.Â
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Nigeria
It’s not looking great for Nigeria. Despite their recent win over Lesotho, they sit third in Group C behind South Africa and leaders Benin with one final game remaining.
The Super Eagles take on the latter in a crucial clash for both sides on Tuesday afternoon, with the winner potentially booking their place at the World Cup. However, even victory could count for nought if South Africa beat Rwanda.
There is the potential safety net of a play-off place if they finish second, but they need a lot to go in their favour. Failure to qualify would see them miss out on the World Cup for a second consecutive time after reaching six of the previous seven.
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