Fantasy Premier League is back for gameweek 11, but not as we anticipated because there will only be nine matches, so we provide our tips and solutions in this week’s FPL column.
We look at whether it’s better to keep or sell Aston Villa and Newcastle United players due to their blank week, what Manchester City assets are worth considering, and some differentials to give your FPL team an added advantage.
Make sure to listen to this week’s episode of The Fantasy Faithful podcast in which we discussed the best captaincy picks, transfer plans, differentials, and important statistics ahead of GW11.
Join our fantasy league: qcey3l
What to do with Aston Villa and Newcastle players in GW11
Sooner or later Covid-19 was going to play a part in the 2020/21 season. The postponement of Aston Villa vs Newcastle United due to an outbreak at the north east club has thrown a proper spanner in the works for FPL managers.
Many lumped on Villa following their 7-2 win over Liverpool, while Magpies striker Callum Wilson (£6.5) became a popular differential recently with his great form. With both sides now forced to take an unplanned break for gameweek 11, we need to find solutions.
The first bit of advice we would give managers is: do not take a hit just to get rid of these players, particularly Villa assets. It’s only one game, they will be back soon. Do you really want to get rid of a season keeper like Jack Grealish (£7.7) only to have to buy him back at greater cost later? Of course not!
Secondly, don’t use one of your chips to solve this crisis. It’s tempting to use that Free Hit now to solve a short-term problem, but believe us when we say you will need that for later in the season. It could be justifiable activating your wildcard, particularly if you were going to use it this month anyway.
📊 CAPTAINCY POLL 📊
Who is getting the armband in GW11? #fpl
— Fantasy Faithful #FPL (@FPLfaithful) December 3, 2020
But only if you’re desperate; as in, you have 4-6 players from both teams and won’t be able to field a full team. If you can field at least ten players this weekend, then make do and hope for the best.
When making a decision before Saturday’s deadline, we advise keeping Villa players if possible and selling Newcastle ones. United’s fixtures are great this month, but we do not know how much this outbreak will affect the team or the fixture schedule. And Villa, don’t forget, will have two double gameweeks on the horizon, possibly in January 2021.
That said, this writer is probably going to go against that advice; the plan is to swap Wilson for Che Adams (£5.7), but also transfer Emi Martinez (£4.8) out for another goalkeeper, so that I have 11 players for GW11. That is undecided, though, and the thought of two double gameweeks is keeping me from making that move right now.
Which Man City assets to trust?
Manchester City are back, baby! Well, they’re 11th in the Premier League table with just 15 points from nine games, but they beat Burnley to a bloody pulp, so that’s something.
The five goal annihilation of the Clarets was a relief to owners of City assets, who had seen the side struggle to get more than a goal per game since gameweek 2. Now that they seem to be back in the goal scoring groove, which of their players should we be prioritising to get in our teams?
Riyad Mahrez (£8.3) is the obvious place to start following his hat-trick in GW10. The Algerian winger now has four goals and an assist for the season and is the club’s highest point scorer in FPL. He isn’t nailed on for every game, having not played at all against Wolves or Liverpool, but he has started in every other game.
Even if Mahrez is a potential victim of Pep Roulette this month, he provides far greater value than Raheem Sterling (£11.4), who is not only not guaranteed starts every week but is also out of form. The former Leicester star is a very nice differential at 7.1% ownership as well.
But the main man is certainly Kevin De Bruyne (£11.7), whose game time is unlikely to be overly affected by Guardiola’s tinkering. The Belgian provided two assists on Saturday to bring his tally for the season to five.
De Bruyne has been back to his usual self in recent games, creating 11 attempted assists (1st), four big chances (1st), and 2.20 expected assists (2nd) over the past four gameweeks according to Opta via Fantasy Football Hub. He’s also taken 16 shots, the third most in the league over that time.
In terms of defence, Man City have the least expected goals against (9.6xGA) in the league according to Statsbomb via FBref. They are also conceding the second fewest shots in the box per 90 (4.67). Kyle Walker (£6.2) and Ruben Dias (£5.6) appear to be undroppable, so we would plump for either of those options with attractive fixtures upcoming.
Man City fixtures: FUL, mun, WBA, sou, NEW
Three FPL differentials to consider going forward
On The Fantasy Faithful podcast this week we gave our differential picks not just for gameweek 11, but for the medium to long-term as well.
Ste McGovern: Angelo Ogbonna, West Ham – £4.9
“Ogbonna is only owned by 0.7% of FPL managers right now and in his last three games he has gotten nine, six and five points. He’s started every single game and only been subbed off once, so he’s pretty much nailed on to play a full 90 every week.
“West Ham have four clean sheets and I think they’re looking pretty good lately. They’re coming along nicely and I know they have Man United next up, but I think the Hammers will give them a lot of problems and frustrate them.”
Fixtures: MUN, lee, CRY, che, BHA
Dara Curran: Rhian Brewster, Sheffield United – £4.5
“Sheffield United are really underperforming their xG over the last couple of games, they’ve missed some chances they should have put away, like four goals. They’re probably due a goal.
“Leicester are up next, who have been pretty leaky. They have the second highest big chances conceded and third highest xG conceded over the last four gameweeks, so there could be something there for them.
“They looked quite advanced against West Brom, there was a couple of big chances for them there, so there are goals due. At £4.5 he could be one to get in to enable an upgrade of one of your midfielders, like a KDB or someone.”
Fixtures: LEI, sou, MUN, bha, EVE
Harry Diamond: Pedro Neto, Wolves – £5.6
“I like the look of Pedro Neto going forward, maybe not this week with Liverpool, but he’s playing every week for Wolves. I think he’s getting better and better.
“I’m not sure how that’s going to translate into FPL points at the moment, but he’s scored in back-to-back games for the first time and he was really good against Arsenal.
“Neto has created almost twice as many chances as any other player on the Wolves team: he’s created 18 chances, while Neves and Moutinho have created ten each.”
Fixtures: liv, AVL, CHE, bur, TOT